Too Cheap to Kill in Ethiopia?

by Teklu Abate

Background

In his latest paper entitled “Ethiopia: Where do we go (or not go) from here?”, Professor Alemayehu cogently discussed possible trajectories Ethiopia would and should take in the years to come. He questioned how and to what extent the opposition is doing their jobs compared to what people in the governing party are doing. The implicit message of the paper is that the opposition and all concerned Ethiopians must choose and drive on the highway that leads to genuine democracy. I concur with his passionate call and would like to contribute to the discussion from a different perspective.

Mainly because of the obsession and compulsion with the everyday political situation back home, issues related to the future of Ethiopia are least discussed. Analysis after analysis following the occurrence of a problem might not have practical, if not political, relevance. Making analyses or predictions related to socio-economic and political issues is vital to take proactive measures.
In this paper, I would like to highlight issues related to Ethiopia’s peace condition in the future based on literature and my own views. First, I succinctly present a study on future peace condition in Ethiopia and internationally. Second, some of the conditions that could aggravate conflict, or conditions that do not sustain peace, are elaborated. Third, other conditions that are thought to have a moderating role are identified. And lastly, implications that the government, the opposition, the media, and the entire peace-loving people should be aware of are highlighted.

Will Ethiopia be more or less peaceful?

Implicitly or explicitly, reports from international organizations seem to hold the conclusion that Ethiopia has a high risk of being in conflicts in the future. For this paper, a study conducted by the University of Oslo in cooperation with the Oslo Peace Research Institute is considered for its recency and its theoretical and methodological rigor in the collection and analysis of data at the global level. To have a complete understanding and judgment of the findings, it is useful to first say some about the study itself.

The Oslo study

This study is conducted by Professor Håvard Hegre of the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo in cooperation with the Peace Institute. The paper is being published in a scientific journal but the summary of the study appears in Apollo, University of Oslo’s research magazine. The goal of the study is to simulate extent of peace and conflict internationally until 2050. The model used for simulation is developed based on the last 40 years’ history of conflicts in all countries and their neighbors, oil resources, ethnicity, infant mortality, education, and youth population. The focus of the study is internal armed conflict between governments and organized groups such as political parties and/or ethnic groups. According to the study, “A conflict is defined as a conflict between governments and political organizations that use violence and in which at least 25 people die”. Before drawing conclusions and for statistical reasons, the programme/software is run 18,000 times.
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